Search results for "STOCK ASSESSMENT"
showing 10 items of 14 documents
Reconstruction of Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) recruitment in the North Sea for the past 455 years based on the δ 13 C from annual shell incr…
2019
Understanding the recruitment variability of the Atlantic herring North Sea stock remains a key objective of stock assessment and management. Although many efforts have been undertaken linking climatic and stock dynamic factors to herring recruitment, no major attempt has been made to estimate recruitment levels before the 20th century. Here, we present a novel annually resolved, absolutely dated herring recruitment reconstruction, derived from stable carbon isotope geochemistry (δ¹³C), from ocean quahog shells from the Fladen Ground (northern North Sea). Our age model is based on a growth increment chronology obtained from fourteen shells. Ten of these were micromilled at annual resolution…
Calibrating Expert Assessments Using Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models
2020
Expert assessments are routinely used to inform management and other decision making. However, often these assessments contain considerable biases and uncertainties for which reason they should be calibrated if possible. Moreover, coherently combining multiple expert assessments into one estimate poses a long-standing problem in statistics since modeling expert knowledge is often difficult. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for expert calibration in a task of estimating a continuous univariate parameter. The model allows experts' biases to vary as a function of the true value of the parameter and according to the expert's background. We follow the fully Bayesian approach (the s…
Eliciting expert knowledge to inform stock status for data-limited stock assessments
2019
Data-limited fisheries are a major challenge for stock assessment analysts, as many traditional data-rich models cannot be implemented. Approaches based on stock reduction analysis offer simple ways to handle low data availability, but are particularly sensitive to assumptions on relative stock status (i.e., current biomass compared to unperturbed biomass). For the vast majority of data-limited stocks, stock status is unmeasured. The present study presents a method to elicit expert knowledge to inform stock status and a novel, user-friendly on-line application for expert elicitation. Expert opinions are compared to stock status derived from data-rich models. Here, it is evaluated how expert…
Extending full protection inside existing marine protected areas, or reducing fishing effort outside, can reconcile conservation and fisheries goals
2020
Most fish stocks world-wide are fished at maximum sustainable yield (MSY) or overfished, as many fisheries management strategies have failed to achieve sustainable fishing. Identifying effective fisheries management strategies has now become urgent. Here, we developed a spatially explicit metapopulation model accounting for population connectivity in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, and parameterized it for three ecologically and economically important coastal fish species: the white seabream Diplodus sargus, the two-banded seabream Diplodus vulgaris and the dusky grouper Epinephelus marginatus. We used the model to assess how stock biomass and catches respond to changes in fishing mort…
Fish Health and Fisheries, Implications for Stock Assessment and Management: The Mediterranean Example
2012
Although fish health may influence key population-level processes, particularly those dealing with natural mortality, reproduction and growth, which in turn affect stock productivity, there has been little emphasis on the links between fish health and management of marine fisheries. This paper addresses this gap and illustrates how knowledge of fish health provides insight to marine fisheries biologists, stock assessment modellers and managers. The study demonstrates ways in which the consideration of condition (energy reserves) indicators and parasitism adds to improved stock assessment and fisheries management, also in situations of data shortage when standard methods cannot be applied, a…
Genetic and morphometric variations of Mediterranean hake,Merluccius merluccius,in the Strait of Sicily (central Mediterranean): Implications for sto…
2004
Allozyme, morphometric and growth analyses were applied to samples collected in the Strait of Sicily (central Mediterranean Sea) to test the hypothesis of the existence of a unique hake stock (Merluccius merluccius) in the study area. The level of genetic variation was detected from five polymorphic loci (ADH*, PGI-1; PGI-2*, PGM', SOD-1*). The average observed heterozygosity amounted to 0.421, while the average expected was 0.353. Weir & Cockerham statistics showed no heterogeneity, except for the single PGP locus (9 = 0.011; P 0.05). Morphometric analyses revealed some differentiation. Females showed different relationships in six out of eight morphometric indices with total length, while…
First assessment of the rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris (Lucas, 1846) in the central Mediterranean
1995
Abstract Between June 1989 and May 1990 a 1 year programme based on commercial samples and statistics was carried out to assess Parapenaeus longirostris in the Sicilian Channel (Central Mediterranean), since most trawl-fishing occurs outside the area currently covered by trawl surveys of the National Research Council Institute based in Mazara del Vallo. Fishing takes place on three distinct grounds, where three different sub-stocks belonging to the same population could be identified based on length and maturity data. Length-based methods allowed calculation of all parameters needed to fit Beverton and Holt's (1957) and Thompson and Bell's (1934) models, while natural mortality could be est…
Five centuries of cod catches in Eastern Canada
2021
Abstract The fishery for Northern Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off Newfoundland and Labrador, Eastern Canada, presents the most spectacular case of an exploited stock crashed in a few decades by an industrial bottom trawl fishery under a seemingly sophisticated management regime after half a millennium of sustainable fishing. The fishery, which had generated annual catches of 100000 to 200000 tonnes from the beginning of the 16th century to the 1950s, peaked in 1968 at 810000 tonnes, followed by a devastating collapse and closure 24 years later. Since then, stock recovery may have been hindered by premature openings, with vessels targeting the remains of the cod population. Previous researc…
The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys
2019
Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due …
Incorporating intra-annual variability in fisheries abundance data to better capture population dynamics
2022
Abstract To reduce the risk of overexploitation and the ensuing conservation and socio-economic consequences, fisheries management relies on receiving accurate scientific advice from stock assessments. Biomass dynamics models used in stock assessment tend to rely primarily on indices of abundance and commercial landings data. Standard practice for calculating the indices used in these models typically involves taking averages of survey tow data over large, diverse spatial domains. There is a lot of variability in the choice of methodologies used to propagate index uncertainty into the assessment model, many of which require specifying it through expert knowledge or prior distributions. Here…